Is a token that loses a third of its pool dead half a day later?

Is a token that loses a third of its pool dead half a day later?

A measurement in which liquidity fell by at least 35% against the reading before it is followed, twelve hours later, by a pool still worth $1,000 less often than a measurement in the same liquidity band with no such fall.

token-measurement cohort comparison. Exposure is the trigger condition evaluated on a 1h trailing window; the outcome is 'pool still worth $1,000' read strictly 12h later — hours of clock time, resolved against the measurement timestamps. Rates are compared pooled and within each liquidity band with a two-proportion z-test, then re-checked on a chronological split.

strata

"liquidity"

window_hours

1

horizon_hours

12

min_effect_pp

20

min_window_points

2

One side of the comparison is empty (0 exposed, 29 control), so there is nothing to compare.

n_control

29

n_exposed

0

One group is empty; nothing was compared. Measurements come from only 0 tokens; consecutive readings of the same token are correlated, so the effective sample is far smaller than the row count. 1019 tokens were excluded for short series and 231 readings had nothing 12h later. Tokens that died early are exactly the ones that run out of series, so the sample leans toward survivors. Exposure is defined by the same detector that surfaced the anomaly, so the hypothesis and its test share a definition. An independent trigger would be stronger. The comparison is held within liquidity bands, which the hypothesis does not declare as a control, or no liquidity band held rows on both sides. One half of the period had no comparable rows, so stability is untested.

version

critic-checks-v1

stability

NEEDS_MORE_DATA

confounding

NEEDS_MORE_DATA

sample_size

FAIL

data_leakage

PASS

data_quality

PASS

independence

NEEDS_MORE_DATA

selection_bias

NEEDS_MORE_DATA

look_ahead_bias

PASS

multiple_testing

PASS

survivorship_bias

NEEDS_MORE_DATA

one empty group

1. 08:00:00OBSERVATIONdoechii: liquidity withdrawn: -41% in one step
2. 08:00:00ANOMALYLIQUIDITY_CHANGE score=0.20 [liquidity-change-v1]
3. 08:00:00MEMORY_SEARCH8 related memories retrieved before writing the hypothesis (vector-cosine/pgvector)
4. 08:00:00HYPOTHESIS#3 Is a token that loses a third of its pool dead half a day later?
5. 12:50:36DATASET29 measurements over 3 tokens; hash 2b0bfb8dadf5…
6. 12:50:36EXPERIMENT#000003 withdrawal-death-12h
7. 12:50:37CRITICFAIL: One group is empty; nothing was compared. Measurements come from only 0 tokens; consecutive readings of the same token are correlated, so the effective sample is far smaller than the row count. 1019 tokens were excluded for short series and 231 readings had nothing 12h later. Tokens that died early are exactly the ones that run out of series, so the sample leans toward survivors. Exposure is defined by the same detector that surfaced the anomaly, so the hypothesis and its test share a definition. An independent trigger would be stronger. The comparison is held within liquidity bands, which the hypothesis does not declare as a control, or no liquidity band held rows on both sides. One half of the period had no comparable rows, so stability is untested.
8. 12:50:37RESULTOne side of the comparison is empty (0 exposed, 29 control), so there is nothing to compare.
9. 12:50:37MEMORY_UPDATEresult stored: withdrawal-death-12h: inconclusive