hypothesis #000004
Does a burst of volume mean the pool is still there two hours later?
INCONCLUSIVEconfidence 0.15written 2026-08-28 12:50:32
A measurement where the last hour's volume is at least three times the median of the preceding three hours is followed, two hours later, by liquidity still standing at 80% of its level — more often than a measurement in the same liquidity band with no such burst.
how it can be wrong
written before the data was seenfalsified if
The gap is under 8 percentage points, points the other way, or does not survive being split by liquidity band
expected
Bursts are followed by intact liquidity more often than quiet measurements are
baseline
Measurements in the same liquidity band where volume did not spike
design
population
Solana tokens under measurement with reported liquidity and hourly volume — the two fields the market source supplies for every pair
sample
Measurements holding at least four readings in the preceding three hours and having a reading two hours later
timeframe
3h of history behind each measurement; the outcome read 2h after it
outcome
liquidity still at 80% of its level
controls
["liquidity_stratum"]
template
volume-burst-pool-2h
dependent
["liquidity_retained"]
independent
["volume_over_median"]
trigger anomaly
VOLUME_ACCELERATION
what was already known
20 memories retrieved before this question was writtenexperiments