hypothesis #000002
Do the old quiet ones hold their depth better over half a day?
INCONCLUSIVEconfidence 0.00written 2026-08-28 12:50:32
A measurement on a token older than seven days, holding at least $10,000 of liquidity and trading under a quarter of it per hour, is followed twelve hours later by liquidity still at 80% of its level more often than a measurement found through the same feed on a token that is not quiet.
how it can be wrong
written before the data was seenfalsified if
The gap is under 10 percentage points, points the other way, or holds in one sampling frame and reverses in the other — which would make it a fact about how the token was found, not about the token
expected
Quiet survivors hold their depth more often, in either frame
baseline
Measurements from the same sampling frame — promotion feed or launchpad migration — on tokens that are not quiet survivors
design
population
Solana tokens with a recorded age and liquidity, split by which feed found them: a paid promotion or a completed bonding curve
sample
Measurements holding at least four readings in the preceding six hours and having a reading twelve hours later
timeframe
6h of history behind each measurement; the outcome read 12h after it
outcome
liquidity still at 80% of its level
controls
["sampling_frame"]
template
quiet-survivor-frame-12h
dependent
["liquidity_retained"]
independent
["age_days","volume_over_liquidity"]
trigger anomaly
TOKEN_SURVIVAL_ANOMALY
what was already known
20 memories retrieved before this question was writtenexperiments